Europe
Our European investment strategists recommend reducing exposure to French risk assets as France heads into its most consequential election in decades. A strained budget, a paralyzed political system, and a turbulent geopolitical backdrop are pushing voters…
Europe is far less insulated from the AI trade than sector weights suggest. The Stoxx 600 has hit record highs on the back of earnings upgrades, improving macro data, and a rotation into laggards like healthcare, staples, financials, and domestic…
Algeria may offer the European Union some relief from its natural gas supply squeeze. Algeria has become the EU’s third-largest natural gas supplier, delivering around 40 billion cubic meters in 2025, accounting for roughly 14% of total EU imports. The timing…
The collapse in urea prices is giving markets a false sense of relief; Europe should not assume the food shock is over. Granular urea price has fallen back to prewar level of $440/Tn, but only after farmers had already faced the worst of the Iran-driven…
Our European strategists argue Europe is shifting from stagflation toward recession. Growth is weakening rapidly, labor markets are softening, and limited fiscal space leaves the economy exposed to renewed inflationary pressures, especially…
Go long German 10-year Bunds versus US 10-year Treasuries as US resilience diverges from euro area weakness. The trade is backed by a widening growth gap, with the US better insulated from rising oil prices and the euro area losing momentum. The US…
Europe is sliding from stagflation toward recession as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken growth, labor markets, and supply chains while keeping inflation elevated. Even if a US-Iran deal is reached, limited fiscal support and rising food inflation leave the Euro Area increasingly vulnerable to a deeper economic downturn.
Relative macro momentum still favors the US over Europe. Our tactical framework rests on two ideas: the feedback loop between financial conditions and economic data surprises, and the impact of macro momentum on markets. In Europe, momentum had already…
European autos remain a value trap, as cheap valuations are not enough to make up for rising tariff risk and Chinese competition. President Trump's latest threat to reinstate 25% tariffs on EU autos is a sharp reminder that European carmakers remain caught in…
Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency internationalization, but liquidity infrastructure without a deep pool of…