Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came…
In this week’s note, we share the main implications for European investors from what was discussed at the BCA Conference in New York and provide a short list of the questions most frequently asked by investors we met recently in…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
In this update, we apply our Macro Surprises framework to equities for the first time. Overall, the message is broadly consistent with our current equity views: Investors should favor Eurozone equities and continue to overweight…
The ECB stood pat today, yet the policy path remains fraught with uncertainty as domestic resilience collides with global headwinds. This dichotomy continues to hold important implications for European assets over the coming months.…
The European Central Bank has achieved a soft landing. Inflation is back to target, with well-anchored inflation expectations. The unemployment rate is historically low, and real economic growth is stable, albeit weak. Given that…
A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.
The post-Liberation Day rally has broadened, reducing skepticism and strengthening the case for US outperformance versus Europe. The S&P 500’s climb to all-time highs has been unusually smooth, compressing realized…
Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth,…