Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Eurozone CPI inflation surged from 5.9% y/y in February to a record high of 7.5% y/y in March and beat expectations of a 6.7% y/y increase. Soaring headline inflation came on the back of a massive 44.7% increase in energy prices…
Executive Summary The Dollar And The Yield Curve The dollar has tended to decline 3-to-6 months after the Fed starts hiking interest rates. This has been true since the mid-1990s. Beyond that timeframe, the path of the…
Executive Summary Europe Is Russia's Key Gas Customer Full-on rationing of natural gas by Germany took a step closer to reality, as the standoff with Russia over its insistence on being paid in roubles for gas plays out.…
German and Spanish CPI inflation surprised to the upside in March. In Spain, harmonized consumer prices soared 9.8% y/y – significantly above the anticipated 8.4% y/y increase and February’s 7.6% y/y rate.…
On Wednesday, Germany activated an emergency law to manage gas supplies in the event that natural gas inflows from Russia are cutoff. This move comes after the G7 rejected Russia’s demand for gas payment in rubles. Germany…
Optimism about a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire supported the rally in global equities on Tuesday. During talks in Istanbul, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin promised to reduce military activity near Kyiv and…
Executive Summary Refreshing Our Tactical Trade List Our current list of tactical trade recommendations centers around two broad themes that predate the Ukraine conflict – rising global inflation expectations and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European yields will sport a structural uptrend for the remainder of the decade. Three forces support this assertion: Profligate governments: Europe…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…