The German Ifo Business Climate Indicator dropped 7.7 points to 90.8 in March, falling below expectations of a smaller decline to 94.2. Both the Current Assessment and – to a greater extent – the Expectations…
The economic expansion is in a more advanced stage in the US than it is in the Eurozone. US GDP recovered to its Q4 2019 pre-Covid level in the second quarter of 2021, and by the fourth quarter it was 3.2% above where it was…
UK headline CPI inflation surged to a 30-year high of 6.2% y/y in February, beating estimates of 6.0%. Similarly, core CPI inflation jumped by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% while the retail price index rose 8.2% y/y following 7.8…
Eurozone consumer confidence plunged 10 points to -18.7 in March, falling below estimates of -12.9. The deterioration highlights the negative effect of surging energy prices amid the war in Ukraine. Indeed, earlier this week our…
We do not expect the relief measures announced in UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s spring statement to offset headwinds from rising taxes, higher energy prices, and higher interest rates (see The Numbers).…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that European headline inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. European headline inflation is set to exceed 7% this summer and core CPI will…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.75% on Thursday. However, the central banks’ messaging signaled a somewhat cautious stance. The MPC stated that some further modest tightening in monetary…
BoE communication was cautious on Thursday, signaling a need to balance between both upside pressures on inflation and downside risks to growth (see Country Focus). Regarding the latter, the UK economic outlook faces multiple…