The ZEW indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany collapsed by a massive 93.6 points in March. At -39.3, the latest reading disappointed expectations of a smaller (but still sizable) drop to 5. Notably, the decline from…
Breakeven inflation rates on 10-year inflation-linked bonds have moved significantly higher since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the UK, 10-year breakevens have surged by 48bps over this period. This increase in…
The ECB delivered a hawkish surprise on Thursday. It announced a faster exit from its APP bond-buying plan. Monthly net purchases will decline from EUR 40 billion to EUR 30 billion in May and to EUR 20 billion in June. Net…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, fossil fuels and base metals markets will remain tight, and will get tighter in order to allocate increasingly scarce supply with rapidly growing demand…
Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Executive Summary Euro Natgas Soars; LME Nickel Squeezed Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's threat to halt shipmentsof natgas on Nord Stream 1 to Europe lifted European gas prices 25% overnight, and will…
Executive Summary Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year? The Russia/Ukraine conflict is impacting financial markets across numerous channels – uncertainty, risk aversion, growth expectations…
The Sentix Economic Index reveals that the conflict in Ukraine is denting investor morale in the Eurozone. The overall index collapsed by 23.6 points in March to a 16-month low of -7. In particular, the Expectations index…