According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should keep hedging European assets via short EUR/CHF and short EUR/JPY. The main driver of the underperformance of European assets relative to…
Executive Summary US Can Do Without Russia's Oil, EU, NATO … Not So Much The US will ban Russian oil imports shortly. This is not as big a deal markets had feared over the weekend, when news of a possible ban of…
The Norwegian economy will stand to benefit from renewed investment in energy. The new Johan Sverdrup oil and gas discovery especially marks a turnaround in capital spending. According to the Norges Bank, real petroleum…
Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…
Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a stagflationary shock that comes at a difficult time for developed market central banks that have been laying the groundwork…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
UK consumer sentiment is falling rapidly. The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer, which peaked at -7 last July, dropped 7 points to a 13-month low of -26 in February. Elevated inflation, higher taxes, and rising interest rates are…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that Italian bonds and European banks are attractive. The near-term outlook for European assets remains extremely murky. Not only is a war in Ukraine a major…
Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…
Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…