The UK CPI inflation rate rose to a 30-year high of 5.4% y/y in December. Similarly, the retail price index grew 7.5% y/y. Elevated inflation is raising pressure on the BoE to continue to increase rates following the 15 basis point…
Highlights US Vs. Europe: Growth and inflation momentum remains stronger in the US versus Europe. The latter is taking the bigger economic hit from more severe Omicron economic restrictions and a greater exposure to slowing Chinese…
Euro Area equities underperformed US stocks by 14% in 2021. However, this underperformance has reversed so far this year with Eurozone stocks up relative to US ones. Nevertheless, risks to European equities remain elevated over…
Dear Client, Next week there will be no regular strategy report. Instead, we will hold our quarterly webcast which will discuss the outlook for the European economy and assets in 2022. I look forward to this interaction. Best…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
Highlights Data from the UK revealed it is tantalizingly close to declaring COVID-19 an endemic virus, indicating Britain likely will exit the pandemic ahead of other states soon. The UK is a bellwether market regarding its public-…
The Citigroup US economic surprise index peaked in late-November and has rolled over since then. It is now just barely in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economic surprise index bottomed in mid-October and has been on…
Highlights 2022 Key Views & Allocations: Translating our 2022 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio results in the following conclusions to begin the year. Target a moderate…
The Sentix Economic Index sent a positive signal about investor morale in the Eurozone. The overall index increased by 1.4 points to 14.9, surprising expectations of a move lower to 13. The improvement reflects a 3-point rise in…
Highlights European economic activity will suffer in Q1 from both the Omicron wave and elevated natural gas prices. The Omicron wave will fade quickly and its impact on growth will be short lived. The biggest economic risk related to…