Highlights The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) will open this weekend in Glasgow, Scotland, amid a global crisis induced in no small measure by policies and regulations that led to energy-market failures. Price-distorting…
UK 10-year government bond yield fell by 12.8 bps on Wednesday, leading the rally in global long-dated sovereign bonds. The proximate cause of the decline in long-dated Gilt yields is the release of the UK budget which revealed…
Highlights Bank of Canada: Rising inflation, high capacity utilization, and monetary policy constraints will force the Bank of Canada to taper further and move up the timing of its first rate hike to H1/2022. Stay underweight Canadian…
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index fell for the fourth consecutive month in October, suggesting that business sentiment continues to weaken. The headline index dropped 1.2 points to 97.7, slightly below expectations of 98…
UK retail sales dropped in September, with the measures including fuel as well as excluding fuel falling more than expected. Both the month-on-month series as well as the year-on-year ones declined. Meanwhile, the GfK Consumer…
European high-yield corporate bond spreads have been widening over the past four weeks, likely because of inflation fears spurred by rising energy prices and input prices. Our 12-month breakeven spread metric, which measures…
Highlights Energy Prices & Bond Yields: Surging energy prices are lifting inflation expectations in the US and Europe, while at the same time dampening consumer confidence amid diminished perceptions of real purchasing power. These…
Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a EUR30 billion investment plan aimed at supporting and fostering industrial and tech “champions of the future.” This new plan comes on top of the EUR100 billion…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy, conditions are falling in place for the countertrend decline in EUR/USD to end soon. The big fundamental forces point to a firmer euro on an 18- to 24-month basis…
Over the weekend, commentary by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey raised the likelihood that the central bank will raise the Bank Rate before year-end. Bailey highlighted that inflationary pressures will force the BoE to act…