Dear Client, There will be no weekly report next week. Instead, we will host our quarterly webcast on Tuesday, October 26 for the US and EMEA regions and Wednesday, October 27 for the Asia Pacific region. We will resume our regular…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the pound could relapse versus other G10 currencies in the near term. However, it is likely to fare well over a cyclical horizon. Their 12-month target for GBP/USD…
Highlights UK GDP is on track to overtake pre-pandemic levels. This will strengthen the case for the BoE to tighten monetary policy. That said, markets are aggressively pricing in a hawkish BoE. This creates room for near-term…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service initiated a new tactical trade to position for more persistent ECB dovishness and a more hawkish Fed. The team continues to see no reason for the ECB to follow the Fed’s path…
Highlights The surge in energy prices going into the Northern Hemisphere winter – particularly coal and natgas prices in China and Europe – will push inflation and inflation expectations higher into the end of 1Q22 (Chart of…
Highlights Cross-Atlantic Policy Divergence: A steadily tightening US labor market means that the Fed remains on track to formally announce tapering next month. Meanwhile, the ECB is signaling that they are in no hurry to do the same…
The UK economy continued to recover in August. GDP grew 0.4% m/m – 0.1 percentage points below expectations but an improvement from July’s downwardly revised 0.1% m/m contraction. The UK GDP now sits only 0.8 percent…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service as long as the energy price surge does not threaten a policy response by the ECB, it will not plunge Europe into a significant downturn. Natural gas, oil, and…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent a cautionary signal on Tuesday. The German Expectations index lost more than four points and came in at 22.3, below the anticipated 23.5. Similarly, the Current Situation component of the…
Highlights The surge in European natural gas prices is a consequence of China’s effort to wean itself off its coal addiction and of the energy supply problems around the world. As long as the energy price surge does not threaten…