As expected, Sweden’s central bank maintained a dovish tone and kept policy unchanged following its meeting on Tuesday. The Riksbank acknowledged that Swedish inflation surprised to the upside relative to its July forecast. As…
Home prices around the world are continuing their march higher. Canada’s Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index accelerated to 18.4% y/y in August from 17.8%. Similarly, the UK’s Rightmove House Price index advanced 5.…
The UK labor market recovery is progressing smartly. According to HMRC figures, the number of payrolled employees increased by 3.0% m/m in August to 29.1 million – 1 thousand above the February 2020 level. Official ONS statistics…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy & Geopolitical Strategy services conclude that German stocks are a bargain. During the past 5 months, the German MSCI index has underperformed the rest of the Eurozone by 6.2…
Thursday's ECB meeting concluded with a decision to "moderately" reduce the pace of asset purchases under the PEPP in the final quarter of 2021. The decision to pare back the pace of purchases is in line with the ECB's…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service expects the ECB to announce a one-off return to the pre-Q2 2021 level of asset purchases on Thursday, couched in a very dovish forward guidance. The ECB faces three key…
Highlights A trio of ECB hawks raised the prospect of an ECB taper. In the past, the current set of economic conditions in the Euro Area would have prompted the ECB to tighten policy. A potential economic deceleration this fall, the…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…