The February Ifo Business Climate index for Germany slightly missed estimates, staying unchanged from 85.2 in January. While respondents’ assessment of the current situation weakened, expectations rebounded to 85.4 from 84.3. …
Our GeoMacro and Global Investment strategists crunched the numbers to determine what the world owes the US for its security commitments. The US administration views trade deficits and defense commitments as interconnected…
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in European Defense, Chinese Tech, and “Boring Stocks”.
A nascent theme in the latest data is the broad improvement in European sentiment. The February Sentix and ZEW surveys both improved, and flash estimates for European consumer confidence beat estimates, ticking up to -13.6%.…
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists built on our European and GeoMacro strategists’ recent work, and looked at the private credit and equity opportunities in Europe. Structural reforms and macro catalysts are…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling…
We introduce a systematic approach to investing based on the combination of three macroeconomic variables: economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises.
The February ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 26.0 from 10.3 a month prior. The current situation assessment also improved, although it remains deeply negative at -88.5…