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Europe

MacroQuant Model Update: Stayin’ Alive

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
Europe: Core-Periphery Convergence
Europe’s economic divide is quietly flipping. As shown last week, spreads between the European periphery and the core have narrowed significantly since their peak during the sovereign debt crisis. A similar trend is at play in the labor market. After…
Daily Insights by Eugenia Pan
Europe: No Escape Velocity Yet
January Euro area sentiment improved, but growth momentum remains limited as tensions with the US rise and reflationary ECB cuts remain possible. January sentiment brightened in the Euro area. The ZEW survey beat expectations for Germany, with both current…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Europa Rides The Bull

Europe is in a geopolitical sweet spot. Exaggerated fears of Russian military aggression and abandonment by the United States, as well as increased competition from China, create a geopolitical imperative to stimulate, reflate, and reform. Taken together with fading cyclical headwinds, it suggests that European risk assets can continue to outperform US ones on a cyclical investment time horizon. Remain long European stocks, in particular industrials, and EUR/USD.

GeoMacro Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
Bet Against Trump Destroying NATO

Investors should bet against the US seizing Greenland by force and collapsing NATO. But stay tactically defensive anyway.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Spain: Europe’s Tip Of The Spear
Our GeoMacro and European strategists highlight Spain’s equity and bond outperformance as fundamentally driven, supported by improving balance sheets, stronger profitability, and repeated earnings upgrades. Financials have led the equity rally, which reflects…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Europe Beats The TINA Trade
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services) have powered Europe’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
European Outlook 2026: The Recovery Settles In
Our European strategists expect a return to growth in 2026, supported by AI-related investment, continued NGEU fund disbursements, and easier ECB policy. As inflation falls well below target in H1, the ECB is likely to deliver one to two unpriced…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
European Outlook 2026: The Recovery Settles In
Special Report

Our 2026 Outlook presents our five key views for Europe’s macro landscape and markets in 2026 —a year poised to reveal the true strength of the recovery.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso

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