Europe

Our sense is that the current reflation trade will extend into the summer, sending stock and commodity prices higher and the U.S. dollar down. Global government bond yields should rise during this phase. Beyond the near term, we expect these reflation trades to go into reverse. Stay defensive.

How big a problem are the non-performing loans in Italy and Greece? And what is the solution?

Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S. TIPS over nominal Treasuries and U.S. Treasuries over German bunds.

Most financial assets are trading within the confines of the feedback loop between markets and Fed policy. Investors should avoid expensive assets such as spread product, and hold positions with attractive long-term value such as U.S. TIPS over nominal Treasuries and U.S. Treasuries over German bunds.

The dollar countertrend move has more downside, but beyond the next few months, the dollar remains in a cyclical bull market. Improvements in global growth, even if temporary, are likely to lift non-U.S. rates more than U.S. ones. The euro will benefit from that move as investors still have deep negative feelings toward EUR/USD, exactly as economic momentum has moved in favor of Europe. The SEK should outperform.

The euro area's nominal GDP and wage bill are growing at 3%, suggesting that fears of deflation are overdone. But a higher wage bill has implications for profits growth.

This week <i>Global Alpha Sector Strategy</i> in conjunction with <i>Emerging Markets Strategy</i> is sending out a <i>Special Report</i> on EM deep cyclical sectors, discussing debt and cash flow dynamics, identifying how far advanced the capital expenditure down cycle is, and determining if recent EM deep cyclical strength should be bought or faded.

Japan is in a liquidity trap: bad economic news is good for the yen while good economic news is bad for the yen. Chinese reflation could help risk assets in the months ahead, but poor EM fundamentals will reassert themselves later this year. The yen bull market is not over yet. The BoC was more positive on growth than anticipated. The BoE's Super Thursday was a non-event.

A stronger yen is hampering efforts to revive the Japanese economy and the BoJ's failed NIRP experiment leaves open the option of direct currency intervention. Probability is also high that the April 2017 sales tax hike will be postponed, perhaps indefinitely. A major stimulus package, "helicopter drops" of money, and a 4% inflation target may be the only way to permanently overcome deflation. Near-term, further yen strength is likely, but the long-term path is down.

One of our highest-conviction investment ideas for the next few years.