In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment…

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Special Report

The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost…

In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.