Our European Investment strategists believe Switzerland is no longer a tactical haven and recommend underweighting CHF and Swiss equities in favor of Swiss bonds. The country retains strong structural fundamentals: High productivity…
Short term euro upside is limited despite a structural bull case, as fragile growth, easing ECB policy, and geopolitical risks cap further gains. EUR/USD broke above structural resistance in April amid optimism over German stimulus…
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong.
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent.
The ECB’s expected rate cut to 2% marks a slower easing phase, capping Bund yields. The shift to a quarterly pace of cuts, barring surprises, confirms a more gradual approach despite ongoing disinflation and weak growth. Staff…
The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.
Cooler May inflation in the Eurozone and Switzerland reinforces the case for an ECB rate cut and supports our defensive positioning across European rates and FX. Headline Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% y/y from 2.2%, with core down to 2.…
Ongoing military tensions between Ukraine and Rusia and renewed US-EU trade friction reinforce tactical opportunities to add European exposure on dips. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian air assets and the limited outcome of the…
Our European strategists expect the EURO STOXX 50 to remain rangebound between 4750 and 5500 this summer, creating a punishing environment for buy-and-hold investors. With the index near the top of its range, they recommend trimming…