Europe
Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…
The flash PMI estimates for March produced a mixed update on manufacturing and service sector activity in the US and Eurozone. In the US, the results suggest that growth is more resilient in the manufacturing sector than in services. The…
The Swiss National Bank’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday came as a dovish surprise to market participants anticipating it would hold the policy rate unchanged. The rate cut, which brought the policy rate down to 1.5% makes the SNB the first among its G10…
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.
In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.
The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…
Citigroup’s economic surprise index for the Euro Area has been on a steady ascent since mid-2023. Its continued increase after breaking into positive territory at the start of February indicates that the region’s economic data are generating positive…
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…