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Europe

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Comparison Shopping Between European Corporates & Italian Government Bonds

In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the event of a downturn in European economic sentiment.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Robis
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Thesis Remains Intact

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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An Update On The Norwegian Krone

In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Does The Outperformance of UK Small Caps Have Legs?
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period.  To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
Daily Insights
Germany Will Likely Drag Euro Area Into Contraction
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Daily Insights
German Ifo Signals Stabilization, Not Meaningful Recovery
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
Daily Insights
Wage Slowdown Is A Positive Development For The ECB
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
Daily Insights
Irrational Exuberance?
Nvidia’s blowout Q4 2023 earnings results and bullish guidance catalyzed a rally in global stocks that pushed the S&P 500, Europe’s Stoxx 600, and Japanese Nikkei to record highs on Thursday. The S&P 500 is already expensive. It is true that Big…
Daily Insights
European Political Risk Is Turning Up Again
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing populist parties perform well but…
Daily Insights
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Global Risks Rebounding (GeoRisk Update)

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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