Over the past few months, we have been highlighting that several indicators are pointing to an industrial recovery in Europe. Notably, Swedish indicators were a cause for optimism. The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European sovereign bonds in the periphery offer more upside than high-yield (HY) corporate bonds. Many question the outlook for peripheral bonds in Europe…
Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?
We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a…
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of…
Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that…
Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this…
Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly…
Results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey suggest that the tight monetary policy stance is still weighing on the Eurozone economy. Banks tightened credit standards for businesses and consumers further in Q4…