Europe
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service upgrades Swedish government bonds to neutral from underweight within European fixed-income portfolios. The Riksbank kept its policy rate steady at 4% last week. Governor Erik Thedéen and the Riksbank…
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…
When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.
Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major…
We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.
Over the past few months, we have been highlighting that several indicators are pointing to an industrial recovery in Europe. Notably, Swedish indicators were a cause for optimism. The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-inventories ratio has rebounded sharply over…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European sovereign bonds in the periphery offer more upside than high-yield (HY) corporate bonds. Many question the outlook for peripheral bonds in Europe due to the ECB’s shrinking balance…
Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?