The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will…
The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?
Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35…
Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic…
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live…
The Baltic Dry index, which measures the average price paid for the transport of dry bulk materials across more than 20 shipping lanes, has rebounded 63% this month and 130% since the middle of the year. The latest leg of the…
According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, coalition politics will prevent radical policy changes in the Netherlands. The Dutch elections saw a shift to new and opposition parties as the team…
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, given the defensive nature of Portuguese equities and the team's recession view, investors should favor the Portuguese bourse relative to Euro Area…