Europe
Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes.
Our DM ex-US strategists see EUR/USD in a multi-year bull market and recommend selling EUR/JPY at 172.5. The euro’s 2025 rally has been driven first by improving Eurozone growth expectations, then by mounting concerns over the US balance of payments. The US…
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on Deep Seek headlines. The…
UK growth data continues to disappoint, making the case for a Gilts overweight and a dovish BoE. May GDP fell 0.1% m/m, missing estimates and marking a consecutive monthly contraction after April’s 0.3% decline. Industrial and manufacturing output both…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y and core inflation to 3.3%…
Our European Investment strategists upgrade small caps to maximum overweight, citing improving margins, supportive macro trends, and attractive valuations. They expect small caps to continue outperforming large caps over the next 12 to 18 months. With…
This week our three screeners identify stocks that are likely to keep delivering deliver earnings surprises in the US, European small caps that are high quality and mean reverting, and Japanese large caps picks across GICS 1 sectors.
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%, both in line with…
The European economy is losing altitude; and the second half of 2025 could get bumpier.
Join Mathieu Savary and Jérémie Peloso for our European Investment Strategy Webcast as we break down the key drivers shaping the outlook for European markets. From macro risk to market positioning, we cut through the noise.