The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half…
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the…
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86…
The flash PMI estimates from S&P Global delivered a mixed message about economic conditions across DM economies in October. The Eurozone composite index unexpectedly fell from 47.2 to a nearly three-year low of 46.5 on the…
Results of the ECB's Q3 Bank Lending Survey indicate that the impact of tight monetary policy is weighing down on lending conditions and loan demand in the Euro Area. In terms of credit standards, the survey results reveal…
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8,…
Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change…
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.