August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m…
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5…
The EU’s transition to a carbon tax launched this week via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanics (CBAM) will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3 – 5 years out), and will stoke consumer (i.e., voter) antipathy if it…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
German inflation delivered an optimistic signal about the disinflation trend on Thursday. The headline CPI EU harmonized index collapsed from 6.4% y/y to 4.3% y/y in September– its lowest level since September 2021 and…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal…