The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?
The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US…
The US is not out of the woods when it comes to inflation, which means that it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Any further increase in inflation risk would prompt us to turn more cautious on stocks.
As expected, the ECB delivered a 25 basis point rate increase on Thursday, raising the policy rate to its 2001 record high of 3.75% and marking its ninth consecutive rate increase. The most important takeaway from the meeting is…
In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…
Among the critical materials needed for the global energy transition, Li is expected to see the largest increase in demand from 2022 to 2050. Li supply is not constrained, but continued investment in mining and refining will be…
Tuesday’s German IFO survey corroborates the downbeat message from Monday’s flash PMI estimate highlighting weak economic conditions. The headline Business Climate Index dropped 1.3 points to 87.3 in July –…
Results of the ECB’s bank lending survey (BLS) show the impact of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle on the region’s economy. Uncertainty about the economic outlook, borrower-specific dynamics,…
Flash PMIs sent a mixed signal about manufacturing and service sector conditions across DM economies in July. The Euro Area release was particularly weak. An unexpected 0.7-point decline in the Manufacturing PMI and a 0.9…
The snap election which took place on Sunday resulted in a political deadlock in Spain. No single party has won enough seats to form a government. More importantly, both the left-wing bloc and the right-bloc fell short of the 176-…