Europe
The ISM PMI sent a disappointing signal about US service sector activity in May. The headline index unexpectedly fell from 51.9 to 50.3 – the weakest level since December and surprising expectations of an improvement to 52.4. The details of the release were…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, although the ECB faces important challenges in the coming year, its success in maintaining price stability and in preserving the euro’s integrity are bullish for the euro because it makes…
It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…
In our FX strategists’ models, the Norwegian krone is one of the cheapest currencies. On its own, valuation is usually not a sufficient catalyst to unlock value in any currency. That said, there are a few signs that the Norwegian krone is approaching levels…
In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-month high of 51.5. On the other hand,…
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate, the resurfacing of…
Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service French banks are better positioned to weather current headwinds than their European peers. The team sees limited risks to the French banking sector from the recent banking turmoil. French…