President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model.
Over the past couple years, the price of natural gas has closely tracked the relative performance of European assets. Specifically, the underperformance of Euro Area stocks vis-à-vis US equities and the weakening EUR/USD…
In Section I, we review the three possible economic scenarios over the coming year, and underscore that the “soft landing” scenario remains improbable. A “no landing” scenario could occur, but it would ultimately lead back to the…
UK headline inflation fell by less than expected in April. The decline from 10.1% y/y to 8.7% y/y came above consensus estimates calling for a more pronounced drop to 8.2% y/y. And although the annual figure now stands at its…
Preliminary PMI releases for May continue to show a divergence in activity across DM economies. On the one hand, the pace of expansion of service sector activity accelerated. The US Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 55.1 –…
In recent insights we have noted a recent deterioration in European sentiment indicators such as the ZEW and Sentix. Similarly, measures of manufacturing activity are deteriorating. The flash estimate of the HCOB Eurozone…