In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…
As expected, Sweden’s Riksbank delivered a 50bp rate hike at its meeting on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%. Moreover, the central bank signaled that another hike is likely in June or September, though it…
Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the downside in earnings over the remainder of the year creates a dangerous risk that can catalyze a sharp pullback at any moment. To protect themselves,…
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index inched up from 93.2 to 93.6 in April, slightly above anticipations of a more muted rise to 93.4. Interestingly, a 1.2-point increase in the Expectations components drove the improvement…
French MSCI consumer discretionary shares have performed strongly over the past year, booking a gain of 31%. Consequently, they have outperformed global consumer discretionary by 42%, and the Eurozone stock market by 24%. As a…
European equities continue to inch closer to record highs, yet, their earnings outlook is deteriorating. How can investors build hedging portfolios using the message from earnings and valuations to protect themselves against the…
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase…
UK inflation came in hotter-than-anticipated in March. Headline inflation remained in double digits at 10.1% y/y, above expectations that it would recede from 10.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Similarly, the core index was unchanged at 6.2…