UK inflation was hotter-than-anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation accelerated from 10.1% y/y to 10.4% y/y – surprising consensus estimates it would slow to 9.9% y/y. The monthly rate increased to 1.1% m/m,…
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment sent a negative signal for Eurozone risk assets. The expectations index for Germany tumbled from 28.1 to 13.0 in March – slightly below expectations of 15 and marking an end to the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services French aerospace and defense equities will benefit the most from rising defense spending and should be highly favored. The…
German PPI inflation decelerated from 17.6% y/y to 15.8% y/y in February – the lowest since September 2021. Although the February print came in above consensus expectations calling for a more significant slowdown to 14.5% y…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue…
The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had…
Despite the European banking turmoil, the ECB followed through on its pledge to deliver a 50bps rate hike on Thursday. However, President Christine Lagarde refrained from providing any explicit forward guidance about the path for…
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that on a long-term basis, the pound is an attractive currency, but the near-term outlook is challenging. The long-term appeal of the GBP rests on three…