The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.
Government bond yields climbed higher across the Eurozone on Tuesday with the rate on the German 10-year bund ending the day at its highest since mid-2011. The proximate cause for the bond selloff is new inflation data suggesting…
A lot of ink has been spilled of late on the Bank of Japan’s incoming governor and the impact this will have on the central’s bank Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Japanese inflation has been climbing steadily…
Euro Area monetary aggregates are showing the impact of tight ECB policy. M1 money supply – which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits – declined by 0.7% y/y in January. The broader M3 measure…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service investors worried about the impact of higher yields on their equity portfolios should favor German, Norwegian, British, and Italian stocks in their portfolios…
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…
The German Ifo Business Climate Index increased by 1 point to 91.1 in February, broadly in line with consensus estimates. In particular, the improvement comes on the back of a 2.1-point rise in the expectations component which is…
The EUR/SEK has been on a strong upward trend, appreciating 13% since its 2021 lows. However, its bull run is coming to an end. According to BCA’s European Investment Strategy team, this cross is now expensive and short-…
The preliminary estimate of the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 1.7 points to a 1-year high of -19 in February, in line with expectations. This marks the fifth consecutive improvement in…