The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…
The February Sentix Index continues to send a positive signal about investor morale. The Eurozone measure jumped 9.5 points to -8, beating expectations of a more muted rise to -13.5. Notably, the February surge marks the fourth…
This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to…
Financial markets were taken on a wild ride between Wednesday and Friday of this week, with hugely important monetary policy meetings in the US, euro area and UK along with a rash of economic data. Despite all the news, noise and…
The ECB and the BoE provided a comforting signal to markets that the end of the respective tightening campaigns is coming before the summer. In the process, they are closing their hawkishness gap relative to the Fed.
The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will…
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 4% on Thursday, with two of the nine MPC members voting to keep it unchanged. While the central bank acknowledged that CPI inflation has likely peaked, it…
As expected, the ECB raised its three policy rates by 50bps on Thursday and signaled that it intends to raise interest rates by another 50bps at its next meeting in March. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde…
The preliminary GDP estimate suggests that the Euro Area economy expanded by 0.1% q/q in Q4 2022, beating expectations of a 0.1% q/q contraction. The improving energy situation due to milder-than-anticipated weather, as well as…