Preliminary estimates indicate that Eurozone consumer confidence improved in January. The European Commission measure ticked up to -20.9 from -22, corroborating several other indicators pointing to recovering sentiment among…
European assets have enjoyed a stunning outperformance since October 2022. Can these strong returns last in 2023?
The volume of retail sales in the UK unexpectedly declined by 1.0% m/m (5.8% y/y) in December, disappointing expectations it would rebound following November’s 0.5% m/m contraction. Lower sales of cosmetics, sports…
The tone of the minutes from the ECB’s December meeting was decidedly hawkish. The release emphasized that Governing Council members agree that the tightening cycle is far from over given their view that risks to the…
China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest threat hanging over European markets is the increasingly hawkish tone displayed by the ECB. The ECB is very worried about inflation,…
In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?
German and UK GDP releases provided a better-than-anticipated assessment of recent economic conditions in Europe. In Germany, GDP growth slowed from 2.6% in 2021 to 1.9% in 2022, beating estimates of 1.8%. In particular, the 4…
While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.