Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Europe

The US Approaches Its ‘Event Horizon’

Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading indicator of this event horizon, and what it means for investment strategy.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Eurozone Flash PMI Returns To Expansion
Eurozone flash PMIs rebounded in January, corroborating recent signals from other indicators such as the ZEW, Ifo, and Sentix that conditions are improving. The Composite PMI unexpectedly returned to expansionary territory of 50.2 on the back of a 0.9 point…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Sentiment Firms
Preliminary estimates indicate that Eurozone consumer confidence improved in January. The European Commission measure ticked up to -20.9 from -22, corroborating several other indicators pointing to recovering sentiment among businesses and investors.   …
Daily Insights
Europe’s Ups And Downs

European assets have enjoyed a stunning outperformance since October 2022. Can these strong returns last in 2023?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Contract In December
The volume of retail sales in the UK unexpectedly declined by 1.0% m/m (5.8% y/y) in December, disappointing expectations it would rebound following November’s 0.5% m/m contraction. Lower sales of cosmetics, sports equipment, toys, watches & jewelry, and…
Daily Insights
Hawkish ECB Minutes Underscore Risk Of Policy Mistake
The tone of the minutes from the ECB’s December meeting was decidedly hawkish. The release emphasized that Governing Council members agree that the tightening cycle is far from over given their view that risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the…
Daily Insights
Oil Prices Set To Rally

China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil consumption by close to 2mm and 1.7mm b/d in 2023 and 2024. We lowered our Brent forecast slightly for this year to $110/bbl, and expect 2024 prices to average $115/bbl. WTI will trade $4-$6/bbl lower.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
Eurozone Morale Improves Further In January
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory, from -23.6 to 16.7 in the…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Big Risk
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest threat hanging over European markets is the increasingly hawkish tone displayed by the ECB. The ECB is very worried about inflation, especially with core CPI bucking the trend…
Daily Insights
Tug-Of-War

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

Related Topics

Australia Canada Japan New Zealand United States See more Topics