The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…
Various measures have recently been pointing to an improvement in Euro Area sentiment. The Sentix overall index of investor confidence rose for the third consecutive month in January, climbing 3.5 points to -17.5 – its…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service’s Combined Mechanical Valuation Indicator (CMVI) framework favors European defensive sectors that are cheap within the defensive equity universe. The CMVI…
Inflation figures for individual Eurozone economies released this week suggest that price pressures have peaked on the Old Continent. Notably, the preliminary estimate of Germany’s harmonized index of consumer prices (…
The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building. Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts…
Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.
In Section I, we note that the global growth outlook has modestly deteriorated over the past month, despite an improving 12-month outlook for Chinese domestic demand in response to the imminent end of the nation’s “dynamic zero-COVID…
This week, we look at the latest data releases in the G10, along with implications for all the major currencies.
In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.
As expected, the ECB hiked interest rates by 50bps at its final meeting in 2022. In addition, it announced the start of quantitative tightening. Starting in March 2023, the APP portfolio will decline at a monthly rate of EUR 15…