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Europe

No Holiday Cheer From Central Banks

In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
ECB Has “More Ground To Cover”
As expected, the ECB hiked interest rates by 50bps at its final meeting in 2022. In addition, it announced the start of quantitative tightening. Starting in March 2023, the APP portfolio will decline at a monthly rate of EUR 15 billion until the end of 2Q…
Daily Insights
2023 Key Views: ‘Chimerica’ In Trouble

Both the US and China have structural imbalances that need correcting. The former has a structurally imbalanced labour market in which demand far outstrips supply. The latter has a massively overvalued housing market. The concurrent correction of these two structural imbalances in the world’s two largest economies will necessitate a sharp slowdown in global growth, and leads to several investment conclusions.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Euro Area Industrial Production Disappoints In October
Eurozone industrial production declined by a larger-than-expected 2.0% m/m in October, following a 0.8% m/m expansion. Meanwhile, output growth slowed from 5.1% to 3.4% on a year-on-year basis. The energy sector (-3.9% m/m), durable consumer goods (-1.9% m/m)…
Daily Insights
Stagflation Dominates UK Economy
Conflicting forces are dominating the UK labor market. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October (the second consecutive increase), providing some evidence of cooling employment…
Daily Insights
Towards A Euro Area Manufacturing Rebound?
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in December. The headline index for Germany rebounded by 13.4 points to -23.3 while the Eurozone measure jumped 15.1 points to -23.6. Both…
Daily Insights
A Positive But Volatile 2023 For European Spreads
Heading into 2023, BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service recommends fixed-income investors overweight Euro Area IG relative to both government bonds and US credit, while adopting a more cautious stance toward high-yield. European corporate…
Daily Insights
2023 Key Views: Europe’s Pivot Year

We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Multiple Tailwinds Support Shorting EUR/JPY
  The latest US and Eurozone CPI inflation releases both surprised to the downside, fueling optimism among investors that central banks will soon pivot. However, US labor market dynamics remain very tight. The November jobs and wage growth figures…
Daily Insights
Strategy Outlook – 2023 Key Views: Edging Towards The Kink

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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