The December Sentix Economic Index sent a positive signal about investor morale. The overall index for the Eurozone jumped from -30.9 to -21 – beating expectations of a more muted improvement to -27.5. Both the current…
European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?
MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.
Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.
Euro Area headline CPI inflation eased by more than anticipated in November. The annual rate moderated from 10.6% y/y to 10.0% y/y, while the monthly figure showed a 0.1% m/m decline in prices following October’s 1.5% m/m…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that in the first half of 2023, weak Chinese growth will be the most important headwind facing European asset prices and currencies. Ever since it joined the…
European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort,…