Preliminary estimates indicate that Euro Area consumer confidence increased by 3.6 points to -23.9 in November, surpassing expectations of a more muted recovery. This second consecutive month of improvement comes on the heels…
After declining 9% in the first ten months of the year, CHF/USD has rallied 5% so far in November amid broad-based dollar weakness. More generally, on a trade-weighted basis, the CHF has performed relatively well in 2022,…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the rise in mortgage rates will weaken housing activity in Europe in the foreseeable future. In 2021, the average homeownership rate among European…
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in…
The latest equity rally and dollar selloff drove the recent easing in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Indexes for both the US and Euro Area. To the extent that financial conditions gauge the availability of funding in an…
The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global…
Our 4Q22 and 2023 Brent forecasts remain at $100/bbl and $116/bbl. Upside price risk continues to dominate oil markets. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain exposure to oil and gas producers’ equities, and higher commodity…
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate…