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Europe

Brighter Days Ahead For EUR/USD?
The performance of EUR/USD has improved over the past few weeks, gaining 4.4% since it closed at a 20-year low on September 27. This development comes as gas prices continue to recede from the late-August peak. Earlier this year, our European Investment…
Daily Insights
Should Investors Heed The Signal From The Sentix?
The Sentix index of Eurozone investor confidence delivered a positive surprise on Monday. The headline index increased by 7.4 points to -30.9, beating expectations of a smaller improvement to -35.0. The Current Situation and the forward-looking Expectations…
Daily Insights
Buy European Small-Caps Relative To Their US Counterparts
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that European small-cap stocks have room to rally versus their US counterparts. Despite near-term hurdles, European economic activity could remain strong relative to that of the US on an 18- to…
Daily Insights
The BoE’s Dovish Jumbo Rate Hike
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% on Thursday. The decision marks the largest interest rate hike in 33 years and brings the cost of borrowing to a 14-year high. Notably, seven of the nine MPC members voted for the…
Daily Insights
Is The NOK’s October Rally Sustainable?
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency in October, appreciating by 4.7% versus the USD over this period. This marks a reversal following a 19% decline in the first nine months of the year, during which it was the second worst performing G10…
Daily Insights
Europe Will Beat The US To The ‘Pivot’

Older workers have deserted the labour force in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. The result is that wage inflation is red hot in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. Hence, the Bank of Japan is right to remain a lone dove, the ECB must pivot from its uber-hawkish stance quite soon, but the Fed and the BoE must not pivot from their uber-hawkish stance too soon. We go through the major investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Global Tightening Cycle Is At An Inflection Point

This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Naïve Readings Of The Twentieth Party Congress (A GeoRisk Update)

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
Data Dependent ECB

The ECB increased interest rates and announced the start of its balance sheet wind down; yet, markets took the news as a dovish outcome. Are we really getting close to the end of the ECB’s tightening campaign? How asset prices will react?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Will The Eurozone Avoid A Recession?
Preliminary estimates indicate that German GDP growth accelerated by 0.3% q/q in Q3 from 0.1% q/q in Q2 and against expectations it would contract. The performance of the German economy is all the more notable that not only was it driven by consumption (CPI…
Daily Insights

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