Despite uncertainty and intrusive government policy, natural gas and oil markets have managed to direct much-needed supplies to Europe going into winter. Natgas markets attracted massive LNG inflows – at a cost of record-high prices…
In Section I, we note that while recent inflation developments point to some supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation, they also point to potentially stickier inflation over the coming several months. The inflation, monetary…
It takes time for wage inflation to die. So, if 2022 was the year that central banks’ monster tightening killed bond and stock market valuations, then 2023 will be the year that it finally reaches the economy and kills profits, jobs…
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany was broadly unchanged at 84.3 in October, beating consensus expectations of a decrease to 83.5. The 0.4-point decline in the Current Assessment index was better than consensus estimates…
On Monday, UK Gilts rallied on news that former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The 10-year yield fell by 31bps while the 2-year yield ended the day 24bps lower – levels…
The October flash release of the European Commission’s Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that household sentiment remains exceptionally weak. Although the index unexpectedly ticked up from -28.8 to -27.6, it remains…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service continues to recommend underweight allocations to US Treasuries and UK Gilts in global bond portfolios, while targeting a below-benchmark overall global duration exposure…
After moderating in August, UK CPI inflation firmed again in September, rising back up to its 40-year high of 10.1% y/y – slightly above expectations. Food and goods prices (particularly clothing and furniture &…
Is the US in a wage-price inflation spiral that could lead to more aggressive Fed rate hikes? Is it time to buy UK Gilts after a wild month of volatility? We answer "no" to both questions, as we discuss in this week’s report.
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment is signaling that economic conditions in the Eurozone are likely to deteriorate further. The spread between the expectations and current conditions components typically leads trends in the…