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Europe

Is Jerome Powell’s Job Safe?
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump's intensified criticism…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Dovish ECB Gears For More Easing
The ECB’s latest 25 bps cut and President Lagarde's notably dovish tone amid rising trade uncertainty reinforce our long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.25%, and Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Deflation Takes Hold: Stay Long Bonds As The ECB Cuts

Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ZEW Collapse Underscores Europe’s Near-Term Strain
Eurozone sentiment has sharply deteriorated, reinforcing a cautious stance on European assets over the next 6 to 12 months. The April ZEW expectations index for the eurozone collapsed to -18.5 from 39.8, while Germany’s gauge also plunged and missed…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trade War Spurs Inflation Divergence
Tariff-driven inflation is diverging across economies, with the US facing mounting pressures while disinflation persists elsewhere. In theory, US tariffs should strengthen the dollar and weaken targeted currencies. In practice, the opposite has occurred: The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Relief ≠ Growth Relief

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Steepeners Offer Convexity
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from the typical recession…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Euro’s Win-Win Setup
Dips in European assets remain long-term buying opportunities, even though short-term risks abound. A notable feature of the recent selloff is that US safe havens failed to rally. In a global growth scare, both the US dollar and Treasuries typically benefit.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump The Unifier

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Liberation Day And FX: US Isolationism

This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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