The ECB took a big step in normalizing monetary policy on Thursday. It hiked interest rates for the first time in 11 years, raising the deposit rate by 50bps to zero. The central bank noted that upside risks to inflation and…
Executive Summary Upside Oil Price Risk Dominates Despite global recession fears and uncertainty over Russia’s retaliation for the EU embargo against its exports, oil markets will continue to tighten. After breaching…
UK headline CPI inflation reached a fresh four-decade high of 9.4% y/y in June, following 9.1% in May and slightly above the anticipated 9.3%. Gasoline and food continue to be the largest drivers of headline CPI. However, the…
Flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which transports Russian natural gas to Germany have been halted since July 11 for scheduled maintenance. Although Thursday marks the end of this annual maintenance period, there is still…
The energy crisis remains a headwind to the eurozone economy, raising the possibility that Europe will need to ration electricity this winter. Indeed, the European Commission’s measure of consumer confidence slumped this…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation TIPS breakevens are pointing to a rapid decline in US inflation over the next two…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Italy entered a new round of political turmoil on Thursday after the populist Five Star Movement refused to support Prime Minister Draghi’s government on a parliamentary vote for a EUR 26 bn inflation-relief package.…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent a cautionary signal on Tuesday. German sentiment slumped in July to the lowest level since 2011. The current situation and expectations indices dropped by 18.2 and 25.8 points,…
While recession fears have spread to industrial metals and oil markets, natural gas prices have been soaring. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices are up roughly 100% since June 1 and over 350% y/y. Supply-…