Executive Summary The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is flawed. This Holy Grail of financial economics assumes that investors are a homogenous bunch with identical investment horizons, when the reality is that investors have a wide…
Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, global activity will not find a durable bottom until inflation peaks, which implies that the market must see a stabilization in energy prices first. Thus, Q2…
Several ECB hawks – Robert Holzmann, Martins Kazaks, and Klaas Knot – have recently entertained the possibility of a jumbo 50bp rate hike this year. Data released last week shows that inflationary pressures…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Sentiment On Sterling Is Depressed The pound will suffer in the short term, setting the stage for a coiled-spring rebound. Cable is extremely…
Executive Summary Crude Oil Prices Will Remain High The EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil imports will tighten global crude oil and refined-product markets further. Pipeline imports are due to phase out by year-end.…
GBP/USD has been strengthening over the past three weeks after hitting a two-year low of 1.22 on May 12. Does this mark the beginning of a more sustainable rally? Cable faces crosscurrents over the near term. On the one…
Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil The EU imposed an embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports, which will provoke retaliation. Russia will squeeze Europe’s economy ahead of critical negotiations over the coming 6-…
The EU agreement to embargo oil imports from Russia (see Market Focus) marks an escalation of economic warfare between Russia and the West. It raises the odds that Moscow will retaliate by incrementally cutting off its natural…