This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…

On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is…

MacroQuant remains tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold.

The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more…

Special Report

We examine past capex booms which turned into busts. Our analysis suggests that AI is following the same script as those ill-fated booms. 

MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.

The rush to build AI infrastructure is based on a false premise: that there are significant advantages to being the first to come to market.

Precious metals, corporate credit, and tech stocks are all showing signs of late-cycle euphoria. We identify various trigger points that investors should monitor to turn more bearish.

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…

World War III will not happen. But if you disagree, here is our portfolio to hedge it: commodities, neutrals, and crypto.