Trade headlines shift too fast to interpret reliably, but cutting through the noise reveals the US is pivoting from escalation to de-escalation. As the equity and bond selloff intensified, the tone from Washington softened,…
Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the…
Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk…
The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while…
Our Geopolitical and GeoMacro strategists recommend buying tail-risk protection and adding exposure to manufacturing-oriented EMs as the risk of US-China military escalation rises. They now see a 10% chance of full-scale war over…
Our China strategists remain defensive and tactically downgrade MSCI China to underweight, citing escalating US China tariff tensions and subdued domestic demand. Favor government bonds over equities, defensive sectors, and A-Shares…
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump'…
Weak housing data reinforces our defensive positioning, as recession odds remain underpriced in risk assets. US housing starts fell sharply, declining a larger-than-expected annualized rate of 11.4% in March after a 9.8% rebound in…
April’s Philadelphia Fed survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our defensive commodities positioning. The headline index collapsed to -26.4 from 12.5 in March, missing expectations and confirming the April…