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Financial Markets

Bitcoin Enters The Allocation Debate
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists recommend staying defensively positioned. They remain underweight equities and the US specifically, while maintaining an overweight in fixed income yet downgrading duration to neutral. Uncertainty around US governance…
Daily Insights
Merz Victory Opens the Door for Reforms, But European Equities Still Face Threats
Germany's political transition supports long-term equity upside, but near-term growth risks justify caution. Friedrich Merz was narrowly elected Chancellor on Tuesday, but his fragile coalition and his decision to suspend the debt brake could lead to internal…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Soft vs Hard Data: The Confirmation Trap
Markets no longer trade on soft-data fears; they now wait for hard-data proof, keeping us defensive on risk assets. Friday’s payroll beat highlighted the soft-hard split: Surveys flag weakness, but actual jobs hold up. In past cycles, markets priced…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
April Services ISM: Beneath The Surface, Weakness Looms
April’s ISM Services upside surprise does not shift our defensive stance, as its components show mixed momentum and rising price pressures. The headline index beat estimates, rising to 51.6 from 50.8. Business activity and new orders picked up, yet the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US High-Quality Strategy: A Better Bet Vs Broad Market At This Juncture

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed on the margin through April, returning -0.6%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -1.2%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance remains robust vs. benchmark, with USHQ generating +230bps of excess return. Volatility and drawdown are lower too.

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
MacroQuant Flags Stagflation Risks
BCA’s MacroQuant model sees downside risks to US growth and upside risks to inflation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chanhyuck Lee in our Global Investment Strategy team. The model tracks hundreds of leading indicators and applies the economic and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
A Trade War Shield: The Cybersecurity Industry
BCA’s US Equity strategists recommend building or adding to cybersecurity positions. The industry remains a strategic long-term theme with improving fundamentals and reduced valuation risk. The sector’s defensive characteristics, domestic focus, and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bunds, The Buck, And The Battle For Safe-Haven Status

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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