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Financial Markets

Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China's Housing Market: Still Adrift In Troubled Waters
Our China strategists published a quick note on China’s property market following the release of housing data earlier this week. China’s housing market is showing early signs of stabilization after three years of crisis, though a full recovery remains…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Politics Of... Mess Around And Find Out

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political capital is on thin ice. Most recessions are caused by a “murder weapon.” It is rare that this weapon can be holstered. This may be one of those times.

GeoMacro Strategy, Global Investment Strategy, US Political Strategy by Marko Papic
South Africa: The Coalition Government Honeymoon Is Over

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
European Defense: Buy The Rumor, Sell The Facts?
Our European strategists looked at the European defense sector after the massive rally following Germany’s fiscal turnaround. The rally in European defense stocks, up over 100% since their March 2023 recommendation, is overextended. While the long-term…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Is It Time To Say RIP To “Buy The Dip”?
Recent years were marked by US equities rebounding from each drawdown to re-test all-time highs. The best absolute-return strategy has been to “buy the dip” and close your eyes. Is it still the case? The short answer is no, as the US economy and markets…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
BoJ Holds, Remains On Watch For Global Headwinds
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  More rate increases are likely this year as…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Gold Tests The $3,000 Level
Gold is testing the $3,000/oz level. The yellow metal had a great run, outperforming every DM currency for the past few months. Despite rising real yields since the beginning of the year, gold prices are up nearly 15%.The relationship between real yields and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
What Could Go Right?
Despite our Global Investment strategists’ bearish stance, their latest report reviews scenarios that could be bullish for equities. Our colleagues remain bearish on equities, expecting a US recession this year. However, several upside scenarios could…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
What Could Go Right?

Despite our bearish predisposition towards stocks, we are open-minded to anything that could challenge our thesis. As such, in this report, we review five upside scenarios for equities.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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