Financial Markets
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report, where they illustrate booming expectations in the US will be self-limiting. For the first time since 2022, US GDP growth is expected to start the year above…
Economic data released over the holiday period extended recent trends, reflecting a softening global economy with resilient US growth, and an ailing manufacturing sector. The December global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.6 after reaching the 50 level…
November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu sees a dimming outlook for European industrial stocks in the near term.The sector has been one of the strongest performers in Europe this…
Our Global Investment Strategy team released their 2025 outlook, adopting the unique perspective of time-travelers reporting from January 2, 2026. They foresee a challenging 2025, with the global economy slowing sharply and the NBER pinning the start date…
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.
Trump's policies aim to support domestic producers and will be pro-growth and inflationary, at least initially. This environment is supportive of equities. Earnings will likely be strong, but elevated valuations make equities prone to a correction. Earnings growth broadening will translate into performance broadening – the S&P 493, Cyclicals, Value, Small and Mid are likely to outperform.
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.
In the final installment of their “PIGS Have Wings” special series, our European investment strategists took a deep dive into the Spanish economy and financial assets. Spain outperformed most developed markets since 2022, with strong gains in both…
The December Sentix Economic Index for the Euro Area missed expectations, declining to -17.5 vs. -12.8 in November. Both the current situation and expectations components declined. As the first sentiment indicator for December, the Sentix confirms…