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Financial Markets

The Third Plenum Looks Like A Dud
Though hope springs eternal among global investors for big-bang stimulus from Beijing, the closely watched Third Plenum adjourned without any specific prescriptions to reverse China’s economic slump. The communiqué marking the end of the session was long…
Daily Insights
Should Investors Overweight EMs In A Global Portfolio?
Outside of the US, forward earnings have grown at an underwhelming pace this year. Forward earnings for MSCI US have expanded by 7.3% in 2024YTD while MSCI EMU has remained flat and MSCI Japan has contracted by 4.9%. Against this backdrop, EMs stand out as…
Daily Insights
The Parable Of The Volcano
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought experiment: Imagine you live…
Daily Insights
The Russell 2000 Takes On The Magnificent Seven
Investors greeted June’s mild CPI report with relief. 10-year Treasury yields declined a dozen basis points in the ensuing four sessions (with yesterday’s action fully reversing Monday’s backup on the increased probability of a Trump victory), the S&P 500…
Daily Insights
Introducing GeoMacro (Alpha Report)
Marko Papic, a pioneer in using geopolitics as an essential component of investment strategy, has returned to BCA, where he founded Geopolitical Strategy, the world’s first dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis. Geopolitical…
Daily Insights
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How Far Will European Earnings Fall?

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/24: Stay The Defensive Course

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
When Will Bad News Be Bad News?
After having peaked in mid-April, Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has been in negative territory for the past few weeks. The sub-zero reading indicates that economic data have been surprising to the downside and signals deteriorating economic…
Daily Insights
The Culprit Behind Poor EM Performance
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, extremely disappointing corporate profit growth has been the main reason for EM's poor equity performance in absolute terms and massive underperformance relative to the US/DM. EM earnings per…
Daily Insights
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When Will EM Stocks Rally?

The failure of EM stock prices to rally over the past 13 years is rooted in their companies’ inability to grow their profits. Even though EM equities appear cheap based on their cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, there has been a regime change in EM corporate profitability. Therefore, the CAPE model should not be used to value EM stocks now.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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