BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or…
The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued,…
Our Commodity strategists see a breakdown of historical commodity correlations. The US dollar now shows a positive correlation with commodities, particularly energy, and a weaker dollar will no longer guarantee upside for commodity…
The equity rally faces two looming threats: Weakening growth expectations and a potential resurgence in rates volatility. Equities are vulnerable to any deterioration in growth sentiment. Economic surprises have turned lower and…
Despite a strong rebound in equities, we remain defensively positioned as recession risks persist and market history warns against premature optimism. The S&P 500 has retraced 78.6% of its initial drawdown, a level that typically…
Our Counterpoint Strategists see no signs of recession or market fragility but remain skeptical of US superstar stocks. Winners of past tech cycles rarely lead the next, making Web 2.0 firms unlikely beneficiaries of the AI-driven…
A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical framework tracks the reflexive…
Our Special Reports Unit evaluates whether US inflation is likely to remain structurally elevated. While our base case is for inflation to hover around or modestly above 2% over the long run, there are several risks to that view.…
Our PMA strategists published Part 2 of their Capital Market Assumptions update, focusing on Direct Lending. They project gross annualized returns of 7.7% unlevered and 10.7% levered for Global Middle Market Direct Lending, and 6.5%…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain underweight US equities and the dollar, as fiscal policy overtakes tariffs as the key market driver. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” may avoid worst-case scenarios, but rising US yields are…