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Financial Markets

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US Just A Whisker Away From Recession, Says The Joshi Rule

Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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The Soft Landing Debate: The Difference Between The Consensus And Us Hinges On One Word

A soft landing can be achieved but not maintained. We are cutting our tactical recommendation on stocks from overweight to neutral and scaling back our long-duration stance.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
S&P 500: Is A January Selloff An Ominous Sign?
S&P 500: Is A January Selloff An Ominous Sign? …
Daily Insights
2023 Regional Equities In Review
China’s equity market stands out as a major underperformer vis-à-vis its global peers in 2023. The 13% drawdown in China’s investable stock price contrasts with the 20% rally in the MSCI ACW Index. It reflects the country’s disappointing recovery as…
Daily Insights
2023 In Review
2023 was an unexpectedly good year for global financial markets. Most of the major financial assets we track generated positive abnormal gains. Although US stocks outperformed their global counterparts, Eurozone, Japanese, and EM ex-China equities led in…
Daily Insights
December In Review
Global financial markets ended 2023 on a positive note, delivering a second consecutive month of exceptional gains in December. Fixed income once again led in terms of abnormally large returns on the back of increased expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.…
Daily Insights
An End To The Herd Mentality Among Central Banks
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the timing and pace of rate cuts in 2024 will differ across countries, representing a big sea change from the highly correlated rate hiking cycles of the past two years. Currently, the…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Returning To Normal

In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
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Triumphs And Failures

A post-mortem of our trades for the year, and also comments on future yen and sterling moves from the recent BoJ meeting, and the UK inflation report.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Takeaways From The CEWC: No Large Stimulus

The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely. Chinese share prices remain vulnerable, and strengthening in the RMB will be short-lived.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu

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