Financial Markets

1 Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds …

The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…

1 Shifting Commodity Correlations …

The equity rally faces two looming threats: Weakening growth expectations and a potential resurgence in rates volatility. Equities are vulnerable to any deterioration in growth sentiment. Economic surprises have turned lower and financial conditions are…

Our Counterpoint Strategists see no signs of recession or market fragility but remain skeptical of US superstar stocks. Winners of past tech cycles rarely lead the next, making Web 2.0 firms unlikely beneficiaries of the AI-driven rally. BCA’s Counterpoint…

1 Second Leg Risk Still in Play Despite TACO Trade Bounce …

A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical framework tracks the reflexive loop between financial…

Our Special Reports Unit evaluates whether US inflation is likely to remain structurally elevated. While our base case is for inflation to hover around or modestly above 2% over the long run, there are several risks to that view. Demographics are the most…

Tariffs & Return Assumptions: Private Credit Declines …

Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain underweight US equities and the dollar, as fiscal policy overtakes tariffs as the key market driver. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” may avoid worst-case scenarios, but rising US yields are already weighing on…