Financial Markets
In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.
Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?
The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this period. To the extent that the…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the risk-reward from overweighting equities and underweighting fixed income is far less appealing than it was toward the end of last year. Now that the mood is brightening, growth expectations are…
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…
In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced price gains. IT, Communication…
The S&P 500 reached our 4,500 mid-year target last week, but the bears have yet to capitulate and stocks could melt up so we are placing a trailing stop on our tactical overweight instead of downgrading equities outright.
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…
Since the release of softer (than expected) CPI numbers in the US, markets have embraced a soft-landing scenario for the global economy. In the FX space, the DXY has broken down below the psychological level of 100. Will this lead to further downside, or…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. In classical physics, the trajectory of an object can be described by its position,…