Financial Markets
Global semiconductor demand will continue contracting, even though the pace of decline will moderate in 2023H2. While demand has increased briskly for Artificial Intelligence-type semiconductors, this will not be enough to lift aggregate global chip sales out of contraction. While momentum could push Emerging Asian semiconductor stocks higher in the short term, their share prices are vulnerable to the downside due to shrinking demand.
What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.
The S&P 500 performance was flat in May if not for the strong performance of a small cohort of mega-caps, aided by exposure to AI. Earnings and sales growth are contracting but analysts expect a rebound into a yearend, which is already priced in. Yet, inflation is still elevated, and the job market is stubbornly tight – rates will stay much higher for longer, eventually ending the party. Until then, the lopsided equity rally may continue.
In response to client questions, we offer our view on the purported link between tech stocks and interest rates, the similarities between the S&L Crisis and the current banking turmoil and the near-term outlook for consensus economic expectations.
In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.
