Our US Political Strategists give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown before November. The odds could increase after that. But the market impacts are limited. The source of the disagreement is the enhanced…
Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign…
Despite the post-election selloff, investors should continue buying Argentine assets on weakness. Argentine markets sold off sharply after President Milei’s party suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday’s Buenos Aires election.…
In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view…
France’s renewed political turmoil highlights fiscal risks for OATs, but creates opportunities to buy French equities on dips. PM Bayrou has called a September 8 confidence vote over his deficit-cutting budget proposals,…
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted…
Our Emerging Markets strategists have upgraded Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral relative to EM benchmarks. Markets are caught between optimism about a potential rightward policy shift…
India’s sharp CPI undershoot will bring forward rate cuts, supporting a long on local bonds. Headline CPI fell to 1.55%, well below the RBI’s 2-6% target range, pointing to earlier and deeper easing than markets price. Our…
The Fed is losing its independence just as the macro environment demands a dovish pivot. Our GeoMacro strategists see it as a setup bullish for equities and bonds but bearish for the dollar. Our Chart Of The Week comes from…
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%. Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue…