The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession.…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through July. Aggregate financing missed expectations, growing CNY 0.8bn to CNY 18.9bn in July on a YTD basis. New loans grew CNY 0.2bn…
Indonesian stocks have sold off sharply and underperformed their EM and emerging Asian peers – both in local currency and in common currency terms – despite the nation’s 5.1% real GDP growth rate (the highest…
Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the…
GeoMacro team partners with BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy to examine political reforms in Argentina. Our colleague Juan Egaña argues that the time is not right to go long Argentinian assets and that Buenos Aires must avoid the…
The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
Just a few days after unexpectedly lowering three key borrowing rates by 10 basis points (bps), the PBoC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20 bps, from 2.50% to 2.30%. While the earlier cut lowered the…