Our Bank Credit Analyst strategists argue that a US fiscal crisis should be treated as a base case over the next decade, not a tail risk. The ballooning US budget deficit reflects higher interest rates, demographic pressures, and the…
Markets have ripped in July, ignoring underwhelming payrolls and retail sales figures. This was our bet, so we don't think this is a mistake. The economy is transitioning from one catalyzed by cash to one led by lower borrowing rates…
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
The SARB cut rates by 25 bps to 7.00%; our EM strategists expect further easing and recommends short ZAR exposure. Real interest rates remain elevated, and high borrowing costs are intensifying debt sustainability concerns, with…
We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may…
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
Our Geopolitical and Equity Analyzer teams recommend a Value and Quality-focused equity basket in Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary to capture OBBBA-driven upside. These sectors are the primary beneficiaries of the…
Our DM ex-US strategists see EUR/USD in a multi-year bull market and recommend selling EUR/JPY at 172.5. The euro’s 2025 rally has been driven first by improving Eurozone growth expectations, then by mounting concerns over the US…
EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. A short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term trend remains higher toward 1.25, and eventually 1.40.