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Fiscal

What’s The Magic Number?

In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view is easily falsifiable. If the 10-year yield starts moving against us, we will pull the plug on the cycle. One reason to fret is that tariff revenue has now become critical to the equity bull market. Without it, bonds could riot. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
Budget Battle Signals More Volatility for France
France’s renewed political turmoil highlights fiscal risks for OATs, but creates opportunities to buy French equities on dips.  PM Bayrou has called a September 8 confidence vote over his deficit-cutting budget proposals, triggering a selloff in the…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Weak Chinese Data Not Yet Forcing A Policy Shift
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted infrastructure spending…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Colombia: Torn Between Promise And Peril
Our Emerging Markets strategists have upgraded Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral relative to EM benchmarks. Markets are caught between optimism about a potential rightward policy shift in 2026 and a…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The RBI Will Cut Rates Substantially
India’s sharp CPI undershoot will bring forward rate cuts, supporting a long on local bonds. Headline CPI fell to 1.55%, well below the RBI’s 2-6% target range, pointing to earlier and deeper easing than markets price. Our Emerging Markets strategists…
Daily Insights by Arthur Budaghyan
If Only The Fed Was An Influencer
The Fed is losing its independence just as the macro environment demands a dovish pivot. Our GeoMacro strategists see it as a setup bullish for equities and bonds but bearish for the dollar. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief GeoMacro…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Mexico: Monetary Easing Is Not Over
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%.  Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue falling within the target range…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
US Fiscal Outlook: Waiting For The Riot
Our Bank Credit Analyst strategists argue that a US fiscal crisis should be treated as a base case over the next decade, not a tail risk. The ballooning US budget deficit reflects higher interest rates, demographic pressures, and the lingering effects of past…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
False Gods: The Fed Will Bend, Don't Fight The Trump

Markets have ripped in July, ignoring underwhelming payrolls and retail sales figures. This was our bet, so we don't think this is a mistake. The economy is transitioning from one catalyzed by cash to one led by lower borrowing rates. The combination of a growth slowdown tempered fiscal policy, and an uber-dovish Fed is good for bonds and equities, which has not yet been priced by markets. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
Yen Ready To Rally: Short EUR/JPY Now, USD/JPY Later

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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